R.B. ABERNETHY, "The New Weibull Handbook", 1996, 536 Oyster Road, North Palm Beach, FL 33408-4328.
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Titre : R.B. ABERNETHY, The New Weibull Handbook, 1996, 536 Oyster Road, North Palm Beach, FL 33408-4328.
Cité dans : [DIV172] Logiciel, SAS/QC Users's Guide, references.
Cité dans :[THESE090]
Cité dans :[PAP370]
Cité dans :[ART358]
Cité dans :[ART563]
Auteur : Abernethy, Robert B. - Author and Publisher
Adresse : 536 Oyster Road, North Palm Beach, FL 33408-4328.
Stockage : LMP
Vers : TABLE OF CONTENTS
Vers : ABOUT DR. ABERNETHY
Dr. Robert B. Abernethy is the author and publisher of The New Weibull Handbook, 4th edition released November 18, 2000. (Pronounce the name Weibull as "Y-Bull".) Dr. Abernethy also offers EagleEYE(SM) service to quickly review your data, using concepts detailed in the handbook, and provide comments on what he observes in your data sets.
Subtitle for The New Weibull Handbook 4th edition is: Reliability & Statistical Analysis for Predicting Life, Safety, Survivability, Risk, Cost and Warranty Claims.
The 4th edition is identified by: ISBN 0-9653062-1-6 for the 308 pages of fresh information. The book weighs 1.7 lbs = 0.8 kg and has clear plastic flexible covers.
If you own earlier copies of The New Weibull Handbook should you upgrade to the 4th edition?
YES because of the new research findings in most chapters of the book, The New Weibull Handbook, is distributed by Barringer & Associates for US$98 plus shipping and handling (US$20 for Airborne Express--shipping and handling while shipping to most locations outside the USA is US$40).
For pricing and shipping details along with bundled packages of books and software click here.
Order The New Weibull Handbook by purchase order (payment terms are net 10 days), American Express, Visa, or MasterCard. You may prepay by sending a check to the address shown on the home page of this web site.
The New Weibull Handbook, Fourth Edition, has been written to update this text with the latest technology developed by the author, Wes Fulton, Paul Barringer and others for life data and warranty analysis. The figures are updated with higher resolution and better fonts. Some of the new topics included follow:
- Small samples reduced bias adjustments for maximum likelihood estimates for the Weibull, normal and log normal distributions providing significant improvements in accuracy. Maximum likelihood estimates can now be made for small
samples as accurately as median rank regression.
- Small sample reduced bias adjustment for the likelihood ratio test and the likelihood contour comparisons of life data sets. Is the new design significantly better than the old design based on testing four units of each design?
- Extreme value statistics for both minimum and maximum engineering parameters such as wind gust loads.
- Improved Crow-AMSAA analysis based on accuracy comparisons between regression and MLE and also, critical correlation coefficients for measuring the goodness of fit of the plotted data. The analysis may be done on failure events, warranty claims, or cost.
- Warranty claims predictions and failure forecasting now account for seasonal variation in usage and monthly variation in production additions to the fleet of units in surface. Here again the analysis may be based on events or on cost. Both nominal and predictive interval estimates are described.
- Outlier detection. Is that first point or the last point really part of the data set or is it a wild point?
- Dr. Wayne Nelson’s new methodology: graphical repair analysis.
- New research on confidence intervals changes the best practice recommendations.
- Improved methods for detecting batch effects. Does the failure mode apply to the whole fleet or just a subset, perhaps a recent production batch?
- Production process control using Weibull analysis. How much do production cutbacks and shutdowns cost and how much production is lost? What is the maximum production capacity of the existing process?
- There are many methods and types of analysis described in The New Weibull Handbook. How can the novice analyst decide which is the most appropriate procedure for his problem. A new logic diagram has been added to provide step-by-step guidance.
- New case studies have been added.
- The Index has been substantially increased for quick references
(for further details on each chapter, click the hyperlinks below)
Vers : Chapter 1 - An Overview of Weibull Analysis (10 pages)
Vers : Chapter 2 - Plotting The Data And Interpreting The Plot (16 pages)
Vers : Chapter 3 - Dirty Data, "Bad" Weibulls & Uncertainties (18 pages)
Vers : Chapter 4 - Failure Forecasting = Risk Analysis (28 Pages)
Vers : Chapter 5 Maximum Likelihood Estimates & Alternative Methods (16 Pages)
Vers : Chapter 6 - WeiBayes & Weibayes Substantiation Testing (26 Pages)
Vers : Chapter 7 - Confidence Intervals (12 Pages)
Vers : Chapter 8 - Related Math Models (32 Pages)
Vers : Chapter 9 - Case Studies & New Applications (32 Pages)
Vers : Chapter 10 - Summary (12 Pages)
Vers : Appendix A - Glossary (2 Pages)
Vers : Appendix B - Rank Regression Method Of Weibull Analysis (4 Pages)
Vers : Appendix C- Maximum Likelihood Estimation (6 Pages)
Vers : Appendix D - Rank Regression vs Maximum Likelihood (2 Pages)
Vers : Appendix E - Weibayes Analysis (2 Pages)
Vers : Appendix F - Batch Failures Using The (ACH) Function (6 Pages)
Vers : Appendix G - Weibull & Log Normal Mean & Variance (4 Pages)
Vers : Appendix H - Weibull Graph Paper (4 Pages)
Dr. Abernethy is THE leading world authority on the principles and application
of Weibull analysis for solving failure problems in a number of different
fields. Dr. Abernethy was a practicing Mechanical Engineer prior to earning his
Ph.D. in Statistics which eventually involved him in Weibull statistics as the
tool of choice for reliability engineers.. Dr. Abernethy (affectionately know
around the word as Dr. Bob) is the retired Chief Statistician for Pratt &
Whitney Aircraft. At Pratt & Whitney Aircraft, he gained practical use of
Weibull techniques for solving reliability problems.
Dr. Bob was the manager of reliability, safety, maintainability and statistical
analysis of Pratt & Whitney's military engine division. He holds the patent on
the J58 engine cycle used in the SR-71 "Blackbird" supersonic spy plane that
still holds all seventeen world speed records. He also has the patent on the
afterburner control system used in the F15 and F16 aircraft. He was the
principal author and project manager for the US Air Force Weibull Analysis
Handbook, the original edition of The New Weibull Handbook. Since his early
retirement from Pratt & Whitney in 1987, he has conducted extensive research to
develop new and improved Weibull methods as described in the 2nd edition of the
Handbook. Dr. Bob's experiences as a consultant include medical devices,
automotive, electrical/electronic equipment, and nuclear reactor components as
well as aerospace. His client list includes most major companies around the
world. He is noted lecturer for the major scientific and engineering societies
in Weibull analysis and routinely teaches training courses for the
societies--although most of his training work is done on specific assignments
for individual companies on a contract basis.
For advanced technical questions about Dr. Bob's book or queries about his
consulting or training schedules you can reach him by e-mail at Dr. Bob. His
seminar schedules are posted on the web.
Dr. Abernethy also offers EagleEYE(SM) service to quickly review your data,
using concepts detailed in the handbook, and provide comments on what he
observes in your data sets.
The New Weibull Handbook is the reference text for theory and methodology for
the SuperSMITH software written by Fulton Findings for solving reliability on a
personal computer. The SuperSMITH software packages include WinSMITH Weibull and
WinSMITH Visual as Windows programs. More details on software prices and
features are available from the SuperSMITH web page.
A tutorial book call PlayTIME with SuperSMITH is available. The tutorial has
step-by-step instructions for solving over thirty problems illustrating all the
features and options in the software. This tutorial with The New Weibull
Handbook and the Windows based software from Fulton Findings provides a complete
home study package for engineers and scientist. The tutorial includes a diskette
with the PlayTIME data-sets to avoid the drudgery of hand input except for a few
examples to illustrate input methods.
The New Weibull Handbook undergoes continuous improvement. Each printing is
substantially improved based on the latest findings of Dr. Bob's research.
The original Weibull Analysis Handbook published in 1983 set the standard for
the analysis of reliability data. The New Weibull Handbook undergoes continuous
improvement. Each printing is substantially improved based on the latest
findings of Dr. Bob's research Where several methods are available, best
practice is indicated. The first edition of The New Weibull Handbook was
published in 1993. It had two printings and represented a substantial upgrade
from the original Weibull Analysis Handbook.
The second edition of The New Weibull Handbook was published in 1996. It had
four printings in 1996, four printings in 1997, and two printings in 1998.
The 3rd of The New Weibull Handbook edition was issued on 9/24/98. Each printing
produces a better handbook! New techniques, new methods, and new software
features are added with each printing to solve important problems better,
faster, and with more rigorous concepts.
The 4th edition of The New Weibull Handbook is now available with the latest
findings from the Weibull community of experts around the world—shipments begin
on November 18, 2000.
The Table of Contents from The New Weibull Handbook 4th edition:
1.1 Objective
1.2 Background
1.3 Examples
1.4 Scope
1.5 Advantages of Weibull Analysis
1.6 Life Data & Aging: Time or Cycles or Mileage
1.7 Failure Distribution
1.8 Failure Forecasts & Predictions
1.9 Engineering Change Substantiation
1.10 Maintenance Planning
1.11 System Analysis & Math Models
1.12 Weibulls with Curved Data
1.13 Weibulls with Corners and Doglegs
1.14 Weibayes
1.15 Small Sample Weibulls
1.16 Updating Weibulls
1.17 Deficient (Dirty) Data
1.18 Establishing the Weibull Line, Choosing the Fit Method
1.19 Repairable Systems
1.20 Summary
2.1 Foreword
2.2 Weibull Data
2.3 The Weibull Plot Scales
2.4 h (eta) & b (beta)
2.5 Weibull Analysis - An Example:
2.6 Median Ranks
2.7 The Weibull Plot
2.8 "B" life
2.9 Suspended Test Items
2.10 Benard's Approximation
2.11 Suspensions Increase h (eta)
2.12 Interpreting the Weibull Plot
2.13 b (beta)<1 Implies Infant Mortality
2.14 b (beta)=1.0 Implies Random Failures
2.15 1.0 <_b (beta)<4.0 Implies Early Wear Out
2.16 b (beta)>4.0 Implies Old Age (Rapid!) Wear Out
2.17 Unknown Weibull Modes May Be "Covered"
2.18 Weibull Paper And Its Construction
2.19 Weibull Analysis--The Standard Method
2.20 Problems
3.1 Foreword
3.2 Small Sample Uncertainties
3.2.1 Goodness of Fit
3.3A Suspensions
3.3B Suspect Outliers
3.4 Curved Weibull & the t sub 0 Correction
3.5 Curved Weibulls & the Log Normal Distribution
3.6 Data Inconsistencies and Multimode Failures
3.6.1 Low-Time Failures
3.6.2 Close Serial Numbers
3.6.3 Mixtures of Failure Modes
3.7 Steep Slopes Hide Problems
3.8 Conclusions
3.9 Problems
4.1 Situation
4.2 Definition
4.3 Forecasting Techniques
4.4 Calculating Failure Forecasts
4.4.1 Expected Failures Now
4.4.2 Failure Forecast When Failed Units are Not Replaced
4.4.3 When Failed Units are Replaced (Renewals)
4.5 Failure Forecast Analysis-Summary
4.5.1 Case Study 1: Bearing Cage Fracture
4.5.2 Case Study 2: Bleed System Failures
4.6 System Failure Forecast Without Simulation
4.6.1 Case Study 3: Aircraft In-flight Engine Shutdowns
4.7 System Failure Forecast With Simulation
4.7.1 Case Study 4: System Failure Forecast With Simulation
4.8 Optimal (Lowest Cost) And Block Replacement Intervals
4.9 Problems
5.0 Introduction
5.1 Maximum Likelihood Estimates
5.2 Median Rank Regression: X on Y Versus Y on X
5.3A Special Methods: Plotting Positions
5.3B Special Methods: MLE with Reduced Bias Adjustment (RBA)
5.3C Special Methods: Gossett’s Student t
5.4 The Dauser Shift
5.5 Special Methods: for Inspection Interval and Coarse Data
5.5.1 Special Methods: for Interval MLE
5.6 Special Methods for Probit Data
5.7 Distribution Analysis
5.8 Problems
6.1 Foreword
6.2 Weibayes Method
6.3 Weibayes - No Failures
6.4 Weibayes With Failures
6.5 Unknown Failure Times
6.6 Weibayes Worries And Concerns
6.7 Weibyaes Case Studies
6.8 Substantiation And Reliability Testing
6.9 Zero-Failure Test Plans For Substantiation Testing
6.10 Zero-Failure Test Plans For Reliability Testing
6.10.1 Re-expression of Reliability Goal To Determine eta
6.10.2 Designing Test Plans
6.11 Total Test Time
6.12 Weibull Failure Tests Versus Weibayes Zero-Failure Test
6.13 One or Zero Failure Test Plans
6.14 Sudden Death Tests With Weibull & Weibayes
6.15 Case Study: Cost vs Uncertainty Trades
6.16 Normal & Log Normal Tests
6.17 Accelerated Testing
6.18 System Deterioration
6.19 Weibull Libraries & Lessons Learned
6.20 Weibull Libraries for End Users
6.21 Problems
7.1 Concept
7.2 Other Interval Estimates
7.3 Confidence Intervals For B Lives And Reliability
7.3.1 Beta-Binomial Bounds
7.3.2 Fisher's Matrix Bounds
7.3.3 Likelihood Ratio Bounds
7.3.4 Monte Carlo Simulation Bounds
7.3.5 Pivotal Bounds
7.3.6 Reliability Assurance Interval
7.3.7 Standard Normal Distribution Confidence Bounds
7.3.8 Summary for B Life and Reliability Bounds
7.4 Confidence Intervals for b (beta) & h (eta)
7.5 Are Two Weibull Data Sets Different Or From The Same Distribution
7.5.1 Double Confidence Bounds Do Not Overlap
7.5.2 Likelihood Ratio Test
7.5.3 Likelihood Contour Plots
7.6 Summary
7.7 Problems
8.0 Introduction
8.1 Binomial Distribution
8.3 Poisson Distribution
8.4 Poisson = Binomial...Sometimes
8.5 The Exponential Distribution
8.6 Kaplan Meier Estimates
8.7 Crow-AMSSA Reliability Growth Model
8.7.1 Introduction
8.7.2 Background & History
8.7.3 Crow-AMSAA Graphical Solution
8.7.4 MLE Time-Failure Terminated Data
8.7.5 MLE Grouped-Interval Data
8.7.6 New Research Results on the Cro-AMSAA
8.7.7A Author's Comment
8.7.7B Repairable Systems and Warranties
8.8 Probabilistic Design
8.8.1 Strength-Load and Life-Usage Interactions
8.8.2 Total Life = Crack Life + Crack-to-Rupture
8.9 Production Process Reliability
8.10 Extreme Value Statistics
8.11 Problems
9.0 Foreword
9.1 Stress corrosion failure forecast
9.2 Optimal Component Replacement - Voltage Regulators
9.3 Southern Pacific Locomotive Power Units Overhaul Life
9.4 Low Cycle Fatigue Cracks in Turbine Disks
9.5 Cost Effective Calibration Intervals
9.6 Machine Tool and Robotic Accuracy
9.7 Shear Ram Blowout Preventer Tests
9.8 FPL Turbogenerator Failure
9.9 TVA Bull Run Fossil Plant - Controller Cards
9.10 Union Pacific Bonded Drive Failures
9.11 Chrysler Repairable Systems Reliability Growth
9.12 Chrysler Front Jounce Bumpers
9.13 Chrysler Transfer Case Seal
9.14 Dental Acrylic Adhesive Fatigue
9.15 Crow--Duane-AMSAA Reliability Modeling
9.16 Weibull Analysis of Boiler Tubes
10.1 The Beginning Of The End
10.2 Which Method? What Kind of Data?
10.3 Looking at The Plot, What Do You See?
10.4 Which Distribution Is Best?
10.5 Substantiation and Accelerated Testing
10.6 Confidence Intervals
10.7 Presentation And Reports
10.8 Logic Diagram - Flowchart
10.9 The End
B.1 Method
B.2 Example and Step-Step Procedure
C.1 Foreword
C.2 Statistics, Probability & Likelihood
C.3 The Likelihood Function
C.4 Maximizing The Likelihood Function
C.5 Maximum Likelihood Example
C.6 Interval MLE
D.1 Background
D.2 Graphic display
D.3 B-Life Estimates
D.4 Risk Analysis
D.5 Beta & Eta
D.6 Confidence intervals
D.7 Batch Problems
D.8 Convergence
D.9 Single Failure
D.10 Mathematical Rigor
D.11 Presentations
D.12 Summary
E.1 Foreword
E.2 Weibayes Equation With No Failures
E.3 Weibayes With Failures
F.1 Batch Failures On Weibull Plots
F.2 Batch Problems with the Present Risk Method
F.3 The ACH Method
F.4 Case Study
F.5 Concluding Remarks
G.1 Rth Moments
G.2 Weibull Mean
G.3 Weibull Variance
G.4 Weibull Mode
G.5 Weibull Median
G.6 Log Normal Mean
G.7 Log Normal Variance
Appendix I - Median Rands, 5% Ranks, & 95% Ranks (8 Pages)
Appendix J - Mixtures Of Populations And Failure Modes (4 Pages)
J.1 Competing Risk
J.2 Simple Mixture
J.3 Competing Risk Mixture
J.4 Compound Competing Risk Mixture
J.5 Weibath Model
J.6 Considerations
J.7 Curve Shape
Appendix K - Answers To Problems (12 Pages)
Appendix M - Graphical Repair Analysis (4 Pages)
Appendix R - References (8 Pages)
Appendix X - Index (8 Pages)
Last revised 1/15/2001
Mise à jour le lundi 10 avril 2023 à 18 h 52 - E-mail : thierry.lequeu@gmail.com
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