Article : [ART525]
Info : REPONSE 152, le 31/03/2004.
Titre : K.L. WONG, What is wrong with the existing reliability prediction methods?, Quality and Reliability Engineering International, Vol. 6, No 4, 1990, pp. 251-257.
Cité dans : [DATA035] Recherche sur les mots clés thermal + fatigue + semiconductor et reliability + thermal + cycle, mars 2004. Cité dans : [DIV334] Recherche sur les mots clés power cycling of power device, mai 2002. Cité dans :[ART294] Cité dans :[ART263]Auteur : Wong, Kam L. (Kambea Industries, Manhattan Beach, CA, USA)
Source : Quality and Reliability Engineering International
Volume : 6
Numéro : 4
Date : Sep-Oct 1990
Pages : 251 - 257
CODEN : QREIE5
ISSN : 0748-8017
Année : 1990
Document_Type : Journal
Treatment_Code : General Review
Language : English
Inaccurate reliability predictions could lead to disasters such as in the case of the U.S.Space Shuttle failure.The question is: 'what is wrong with the existing reliability prediction methods?' This paper examines the methods for predicting reliability of electronics.Based on information in the literature the measured vs predicted reliability could be as far apart as five to twenty times.Reliability calculated using the five most commonly used handbooks showed that there could be a 100 times variation.The root cause for the prediction inaccuracy is that many of the first-order effect factors are not explicitly included in the prediction methods.These factors include thermal cycling, temperature change rate, mechanical shock, vibration, power on/off, supplier quality difference, reliability improvement with respect to calendar years and ageing.As indicated in the data provided in this paper any one of these factors neglected could cause a variation in the predicted reliability by several times. The reliability vs ageing-hour curve showed that there was a 10 times change in reliability from 100 ageing-hours to 10,000 ageing-hours.Therefore, in order to increase the accuracy of reliability prediction the factors must be incorporated into the prediction methods.(Author abstract) 14 Refs.
Accession_Number : 1991(2):14173 COMPENDEX
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